KDpredict
More individualized kidney prognosis by estimating both kidney-failure and mortality risk.
Developed through University of Calgary kidney research to improve individualized prognostic conversations in chronic kidney disease, helping clinical teams and patients balance renal replacement planning against competing life events.
At a Glance
- Who it is for
- Nephrologists, primary care clinicians, multidisciplinary teams & patients
- Access model
- Public external clinical web tool
- Account required
- No — freely accessible directly online
- Clinical status
- Multi-cohort validated decision-support equation
- Research Origin
- University of Calgary kidney research investigators
Why Competing Risk Matters in Kidney Disease
Traditional prediction tools like the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) are widely adopted and highly effective for estimating kidney-failure trajectories. However, in older or multi-morbid populations, kidney failure is only part of the clinical story.
Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE)
- Estimates the statistical probability of progression to dialysis or kidney transplantation over 2 and 5 years.
- Focuses primarily on kidney-specific decline and progression thresholds.
- Focuses on the single outcome of kidney failure without simultaneously modelling mortality as a competing event.
KDpredict Competing-Risk Model
- Accounts simultaneously for both kidney failure and competing all-cause mortality risk.
- Particularly informative for patients where cardiovascular and non-renal risks may equal or exceed kidney failure risk.
- Provides richer clinical context to support shared decision-making, advance care planning, and vascular access timing.
Clinical Context in Advanced CKD
When a patient's mortality risk significantly outpaces kidney-failure risk, individualized care planning may emphasize symptom management and conservative care alongside modality education. Conversely, when kidney failure risk is dominant, timely modality preparation and preemptive transplant listing remain paramount.
Decisions Supported by Individualized Prognosis
Nephrology Referral & Triage
Prioritize clinic visits and allocate multidisciplinary resources based on combined progression likelihood.
Vascular Access Planning
Inform the timing and selection of surgical access based on realistic survival horizons.
Modality Education & Goals of Care
Guide transparent discussions covering hemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, preemptive transplant, and conservative management.
Ready to calculate individualized patient risk?
Launch the validated KDpredict web calculator at kdpredict.ca to enter laboratory parameters and review dual-trajectory outcomes.